Lots of talk this week about Declan Rice and his ability to progress the ball. (Interestingly this talk intensified off the back of 2 Arsenal losses in a row you can read into that as much as you wish) I’ve taken issue with some of the chat on this topic because it wasn’t really marrying up to my experience of watching the player this season who by all accounts most Arsenal fans will be pretty pleased with the performances of the player both on and off the ball. I wanted to use this post to answer the question “is Rice a hindrance to Arsenal’s build up play?”.

One post that has been circulating the twittersphere has been used to say Declain Rice loves to distribute the ball round the horseshoe rather than directly through the middle of the pitch when compared to Thomas Partey.

This image taken from a very informative Arseblog Article written by @johnollington (a good follow and a good read) compares the deep completions of Thomas Partey to Declan Rice from the 22/23 season.

Something to note right off the bat is that West Ham and Arsenal quite obviously play in very contrasting styles, in 22/23 PL season, Arsenal averaged 59.3% possession (ranked 4th) and West ham just 42.1% (ranked 17th).

West Ham’s main way of scoring was to funnel the ball wide and deliver dangerous crosses into the box via Bowen or Paqueta. Knowing this, goes some way to explaining why the majority of the deep completions would be out wide rather than central especially when you compare that to Arsenal who looked to go wide but also to find Odegaard, Jesus or Xhaka occupying central zones ahead of the ball.

It is also highlighted in this article that Arsenal ranked 2nd in the league for the deep completion metric with West Ham in 19th. This again showcases that the two teams had very contrasting styles and also that Declan Rice is a pretty good ball progressor to average as many deep completions as Granit Xhaka despite playing deeper and also with his team not dominating possession in the same way.

When we look at the comparison of the players now Rice has moved to Arsenal it gives a much clearer apples to apples comparison.

A TG tweet asked people to compare the progression of 4 players – Rice, Rodri, Bissouma and Partey for the past 365 days. Feel free to check the replies and comments for guesses but basically no one picked the correct image for Declan Rice and there must be a reason for this.

From the image you can see Rice has covered the central area of the pitch almost completely with white arrows, but out of the three players above is the only one accused of not undertaking any central progression.

A lot of people still associate the Declan Rice they were seeing at West Ham to what they are seeing now at Arsenal and whilst I dont think Rice has made many significant improvements technically it is clear there have been some changes as he adapts to a new style of play.

In an Athletic article from earlier in the season by @ArtDeRoche & @Gunnerblog it was stated that Rice was spending extra time to learn the new requirements in both the 6 and 8 role having to re-learn certain aspects of midfield play. This is something that Rodri also had to get to grips with when joining Manchester City where he called the change “not easy”. It’s easy to forget Pep leaving him out of his CL final lineup in 2021 vs Chelsea, something which would be unheard of now as he has gone from strength to strength in a Manchester City shirt.

For me the main difference between the players is as fellow TG cast member @iamdt_45 likes to say “operation speed” Partey has an inherent ability to accelerate the play whenever he is on the ball and he looks to play forward with speed whenever he can. Partey’s best quality is his ability to dribble out of the press.

Partey has the highest take on % of any midfielder last season averaging just under 80% success rate when attempting a take on. This ability to escape pressure means Partey can receive the ball from any angle and turn out to play forward having created more time and space for himself. Rice does not have this ability (very few midfielders do) which means a lot of the time his passes have to come when he is already facing the play, which means he will have to sometimes take a few extra touches before being able to release the ball which can mean a passing lane has now closed.

Diego Simeone when talking about Partey and Rodri said:

Thomas is more vertical, Rodrigo more horizontal. Thomas gives the team more direction, I put him in and they killed me for not putting in Rodrigo. He is a great player, but Thomas, when he manages to maintain consistency and balance. He has goals, arrival, assists, a shot… Not everyone has all this.”

Partey is one of the most vertical midfielders around, his ability to beat a press and play forward is definitely one of his biggest strengths that would be difficult for any midfielder to try and replicate. The main difference for me is Partey’s ability to beat players off the dribble and speed of play.

Rice is rightfully known for this off the ball work but in my opinion his on the ball passing is clearly underrated, so much so that there can be videos and data showing he makes lots of central passes and carries but people still don’t think he is as progressive as other players.

Earlier in the season there was talk of Rice and Arsenal, struggling to progress the ball with Rice the highest ranking Arsenal player at 17th in progressive passes on 2nd October. This has since completely flipped for reasons I will come onto later with Rice now topping this list and also being 2nd in passes into the final 1/3rd just behind Rodri.

There are a few reasons that explain this upward trajectory, one of which is Rice playing in a more settled midfield and building better relationships with his team mates as the season has progressed.

Rice played a few games at 8 and 6 alongside, Havertz, Vieira, Jorginho, Odegaard and also with a shifting roster of players ahead of him with Martinelli, Jesus and Saka all missing different parts of the season at different times. The team over the last few weeks has settled into a more consistent rhythm allowing the building of better dynamics as players adapt to eachother’s movements.

The main change in the team was something I highlighted in my previous piece about Arsenal’s attack regarding Martin Odegaard. Odegaard started the season with a much higher starting position in build up and taking a lot of shots. This meant that his creation numbers dropped drastically. After the first 4 games of the season he had only created 1 chance from open play

It has been put forward (incorrectly in my opinion) that the shift in team dynamics to put Odegaard deeper in build up to help Declan Rice but I think this shift was required to get the very best out of Martin Odegaard. In my opinion is at his best when he has build up responsibilities and is able to dictate attacks from the middle third of the pitch arriving into the final third. When Odegaard gets lots of touches Arsenal are in a good place.

This is further drawn out when you look at the ball progression numbers. Odegaard completed the most progressive passes in the league last season he droppped right down and out of the top 20 by the start of October. Since his time out of the team and the last international break this tactical switch has allowed him to work his way back up to the top 10.

If you dive further into last season’s ball progression numbers you will see Arsenal had 5 players in the the top 16 for ball progression in the league, with 2 conspicuous omissions for the current season.

Odegaard following the tactical tweak and getting over a suspected hip injury appears to be back to his best. Rice is doing a solid job of progressing the ball in Partey’s absence (at least statistically, 9.48 vs Partey’s 8.37 progressive passes p90). Should also be noted Rice in the top 10 at West Ham last season despite the possession stats mentioned earlier.

The clear absentees for Arsenal are Granit Xhaka and Ben White when it comes to ball progression. Xhaka’s main replacement in the side has been Kai Havertz who is baking somewhere down in 101st for progressive passes in the division, which has had some severe knock-on effects for the team in my opinion.

Zinchenko looks to have significantly stepped up his progression responsibilities (12.00 vs 9.66 p90) in Xhaka’s absence. However whilst Zinchenko is doing his best imitation of Xhaka. Arsenal have lost a lot of ball progression down the left hand side without the pair working together and with Havertz passing being sub standard. Whether you think Xhaka or Zinchenko’s passing is better (I lean towards the former) having them both on that side was a great foil to Odegaard and Partey or Odegaard and Rice on the other side and Arsenal seem to have lost midfield balance with that adjustment.

Another noteworthy point here, is that when we then look at passes into the penalty area you then get a better picture of how teams look to build play given the wider variation of players from teams with different playstyles.

To give you an example Pedro Porro and James Maddison are Spurs’ most progressive passers and Kulusevski and Maddison their most effective at passing into the penalty area, showing that spurs like to build up down the right hand side and use Kulu and Maddison as their main avenues to hurt teams.

This is also reflective of Man City where in the absence of KDB due to injury this season their main sources of creativity have been Rodri, Foden, Bernardo and Julian Alvarez all in the top 30 for passes into the penalty area.

When you look at the numbers for last season you can see neither Rodri nor Partey show up in the Top 30. With Rodri down in 47th and Partey even further down in 79th last season. Reflecting their respective roles in actually penetrating boxes last season.

In the case of Arsenal all of Xhaka, Zinchenko, White, Martinelli, Saka and Odegaard make up the top 30 with the latter two in the top 10.

Again here you can see the same two conspicuous absences from the top 30 with Ben White no longer present and no Xhaka replacement.

Ben White is apparently nursing a knock which is clearly affecting his ability to contribute on a consistent basis to the attack and Kai Havertz is a poor imitation of whatever Xhaka was giving Arsenal in terms of ball progression. These are significant factors to Arsenal’s attack and need to be rectified if there is a desire to return to last season’s attacking dynamics.

When you factor in the progressive pass receptions of each player per 90 season on season (22/23 vs 23/24) the difference in output is highlighted even more.

Saka (14.7 vs 16.6), Martinelli (11.3 vs 15), Odegaard (5.11 vs 5.93) and Havertz(5.78 vs Xhaka 5.26) are receiving more progressive passes p90 when compared to last season, but it is clear the usage of the ball once received is not quite the same.

As highlighted in another piece, the forward line have not been firing all season for a plethora of reasons but for me it is not because they are not receiving the ball in advantageous positions.

As shown in the pass map above, Declan rice plays a number of passes into central zones, albeit potentially less quickly than Partey, which is a contributing factor but if you look at where these passes are made and arriving from there is no real distinction between the two players.

If you look at the pass combinations from the match against Fulham, Rice to Odegaard was in the top 5 for Arsenal with Rice passing to him 19 times in the game.

when you contrast that to the 3-0 win over Fulham last season, widely regarded as a top Partey performance and one of Arsenal’s most complete performances of the season the pass map from Partey to Odegaard 11 passes is not dissimilar.

If you go through game by game comparing the progressive passes of Rice vs Partey, the pattern is eerily similar. Rice is quite clearly doing his job of progressing the ball. Arsenal are increasingly dominant in the majority of games in possession, chance creation and in stifling opposition chances.

To answer the main question re whether Rice is a hindrance to Arsenal I would say this, not being Thomas Partey does not make you a hindrance especially when most midfielders in Europe are not Thomas Partey.

Rice progresses the ball better than most defensive midfielders in football right now especially in the premier league and the main hindrance to build up and central progression looks to be on the other side of the pitch where the LCM looks to operate and the dip in performance linked to Ben White’s injury.

Where Rice can improve is definitely with his speed of play and the ability to receive on the half turn. I would not expect him to be able to develop these skills overnight what I would like to see going forward is potentially less risk aversion in his play and as confidence grows in playing with these team mates and in this system I would expect him to be even more direct with the ball at his feet.

It has taken some players a long time to learn the number 6 role especially for a team that uses positional play and some players such as Kalvin Philips have not been able to pick it up at all. Recent examples of Rodri, Fabinho and even Partey himself are good examples of players needing at least 6 months to fully bed themselves in and really take the role with both hands.

Given the price tag over his head, Rice’s start at Arsenal I think has been exceptional. Evan as a fan of the player before he joined he has surprised me and a number of other people with his technical level and speed within which he has looked at home in an Arsenal shirt.

I think people forget that he has spent his career playing a completely different style and some have been extremely quick to lambast any poor performance with an “I told you so” or “I was right about him all along”.

Based on everything presented here I am more and more convinced Declan Rice is the clear present and future 6 for Arsenal. I would encourage doubters to extend some grace, slow down with conclusive statements, sit back and take in the performances as they continue to get better and better as Rice fully acclimatises to his new club.