I decided to write this post off the back of the one-nil hard-fought win away at Brentford. Chances were few and far between and a back post header from Kai Havertz (!) of all people stole all three points for The Gunners.

Behind all the somewhat tiresome talk of goalkeepers and defensive midfielders this season, the main headline for me watching Arsenal this season is what the team is trying to do going forward. Arsenal’s attacking output so far has raised question marks especially when compared to the scintillating stuff played for three-quarters of the 22/23 season.

An interesting MOTD graphic highlights the difference from last season in both our attacking and defensive output. On the surface, when extrapolated across the full season, this reads as Arsenal only scoring about 3.8 goals fewer compared to last whilst conceding a whopping 11.4 goals fewer based on expected goals. 

This does not seem to be that big of a deal, when you gain an additional 6 goal difference you would likely see Arsenal rack up slightly more points than they managed last season (84). When you dive a little deeper however, there may be some more concerning issues here and question marks over the sustainability of these numbers over the course of the rest of the year.

Edit: Jamie Carragher touched on some interesting stuff that I was planning to dive into in some depth later on in this piece but I think his talk on MNF was quite a good indication of some of the creative issues we’ve been suffering with this season even though I may not fully agree with his conclusions.

Is there a creation problem?

Last season seemed to take a few people by surprise as to how good Arsenal were initially. I did think the trend was there to see but it’s clear that a lot of early season form was down to teams being blown away by Arsenal’s high octane fast paced football. Central midfield was set and lots of positional rotation in the front line was hard to live with for teams.

Taking a look at the way the team created the majority of chances last season, Gabriel Martinelli led the team in expected assists closely followed by Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. This tracks with these three playing the majority of minutes behind the striker last season. Looking at the p90 stats Vieira and Trossard seem to be more forceful creators averaging just under an assist every two games if they were to start all the matches.

	22/23			23/24
Player	xA	xAp90	Assists	xA	xAp90	Assists
Gabriel Martinelli	9.35	0.33	5	1.14	0.13	2
Martin Odegaard	9.21	0.26	7	1.42	0.14	1
Bukayo Saka	7.04	0.20	11	4.28	0.37	5
Leandro Trossard	4.55	0.45	10	1.82	0.42	1
Fabio Vieira	2.24	0.43	2	1.09	0.43	2
Kai Havertz	–	–	–	0.74	0.09	1
Granit Xhaka	4.8	0.14	7	–	–	–

The numbers have clearly dropped off for Martinelli and Odegaard this season who have been tasked with slightly different roles in the team. 

Last year saw Odegaard in a slightly deeper and more playmakery(?) role in the team dropping to aid build up at times and arrive later in the box to finish an attack or play a final ball. This allowed more dynamic shifting of positions with Saka with Ben White overlapping this allowed plenty of freedom to move between zones. This wide triangle provided a platform for unpredictability and game breaking moments and was probably our most fruitful combination for chance creation last season.

Odegaard has not really hit the same height as he did last season. It seems that he has been struggling with a hip injury which can affect a players dynamism and comfortable movement across the turf. He was Arsenal’s principle attacker last season responsible for dictating the press and controlling games alongside Thomas Partey. It cannot be understated to not have him playing at his best, Partey out injured and Xhaka out of the club, the team is trying to develop with an entirely new midfield with different profiles and strengths. Losing Partey and Xhaka’s verticality with the ball on the ground and Odegaard’s creativity has meant the ball has been shuffled wide more often where teams seem to be more happy for Arsenal to have the ball.

On the left hand side Gabriel Martinelli is an interesting case, as he was probably the biggest victim of poor finishing last season (that I will touch on later) as his 9.35 expected assists garnered just 5 actual assists. Like Saka and Odegaard on the right hand side I think Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus also benefited from ample positional rotation that we haven’t quite matched this season given that Nketiah – who is less comfortable in wide positions- has started 10/13 league games up top. This has seen Martinelli’s expected assists per 90 this season to drop drastically from 0.33 to just 0.13. Over the course of a full season this would equate to an assist every 3 games to an assist every 7.5 matches which is a significant drop off.

Whilst Martinelli is effective as a touchline winger, I believe his best work comes when he is closer to the box as I regard him as a very good finisher with a good eye for a final pass, and has always presented a high propensity for both goals and assists (Brazil coaches also agree with me) throughout his Arsenal career. 

23/24 PL season heatmap (sofascore.com)

22/23 PL season heatmap (sofascore.com)

All of his goals last season bar one effort vs Leicester came from inside the box and as you can see from the season heatmap comparison, he is spending a lot more time on the left side than in central areas, meaning he is unable to have the same goalmouth impact this season. 

I hope that part of this is the fact that Eddie Nketiah and Kai Havertz have been the one trusted to play up top and in midfield respectively in the early parts of this season. They both have less of a penchant to drift into the channels vs last season’s counterparts in Gabriel Jesus and Xhaka. Similarly to the other flank as described above, there is a lot less rotation of positions and Martinelli tends to be the player tasked with holding the width in the five lanes of attack.

Fabio Vieira and Leandro Trossard are also intriguing when looking at the creation numbers. Both seem to be more forceful creators putting up strong numbers despite the lack of starts for either player or any run of games in a specific position within the team.

Trossard’s contribution of 10 assists for Arsenal in just under half a season is extremely impressive and his boasting of 0.45xA per 90 stands out when you look at the top chance creators in the premier league in KDB, Mohamed Salah, and Bruno Fernandes averages of 0.53, 0.49 and 0.40 per 90 last season. Fabio Vieira similarly seems to be able to create chances at will, averaging an almost equally 0.43 xA across last season and this season in the league. In his case it seems more particularly frustrating he hasn’t seen more game time in the 23/24 season. New signings (Havertz), injuries and suspensions has meant no one individual has really been able to stake a claim for the much coveted left 8 position in Arsenal’s midfield.

It may be the case that one or both of Vieira (Edit: now looks like Vieira will be out for a while given he has just undergone surgery) and Trossard may need to feature more regularly from the start of games to increase the level of chance creation we are currently seeing in the team. In the slight glimpse we have seen of Fabio Vieira in that position it has been a mixed bag, some great cameos vs Manchester United, Sheffield United and Fulham, and a disallowed goal vs Everton have shown that Vieira could have something significant to contribute this season. 

It is especially interesting to see he seems to have a much better relationship with Martinelli on the left hand side than any of the other options, with the pair often freely changing positions. Havertz, Rice and ESR have their own qualities but none of them are particularly incisive passers and in previous seasons, Xhaka and Zinchenko on that side seem to fit Martinelli’s qualities much more. 

Martinelli’s pass to Fabio Vieira won the penalty vs Fulham, Vieira was able to pick an excellent cross for Nketiah from the left half-space in that same game. Vieira also played a lovely pass between the fullback and centre back vs Everton for a trademark Martinelli out-to-in run for the disallowed goal, a weapon we have not really been able to utilise to any great extent at all this season.

Expected goals and quality of chances 

Looking at the numbers from last season from the main attacking threats in the team it is clear there is a strong contrast in the amount of non-penalty goals created per player. Every single player is down on an individual basis in terms of the amount of non-penalty expected goals showing that Arsenal are just not creating as many chances as they were last season.

Premier league goal statistics*:

	23/24			22/23
Player	NPxG	NPG	NPxGp90	NPxG	NPG	NPxGp90
Gabriel Jesus	2.07	1 (-1.07)	0.43	16.17	10 (-6.17)	0.66
Eddie Nketiah	3.86	5 (+1.14)	0.43	9.22	4 (-5.22)	0.82
Bukayo Saka	3.13	2 (-1.13)	0.25	9.02	12 (+2.98)	0.33
Gabriel Martinelli	1.24	1 (-.24)	0.14	10.54	15 (+4.46)	0.32
Martin Odegaard	0.98	1 (-0.02)	0.25	9.14	15 (+5.86)	0.26
Granit Xhaka	–	–	–	5.79	7 (+1.21)	0.17
Kai Havertz	1.78	1 (-0.78)	0.22	–	–	–
Leandro Trossard	2.00	3 (+1)	0.47	7.07*	8 (-1.07)	0.28

It is clear that there is a big differential in the amount of shooting opportunities the team is getting as a whole in open play. Every single attacking player is down across the board with the exception of Trossard and also Havertz when compared to Xhaka from last season.

The best finishers statistically are the club in Saka, Martinelli and Odegaard are not really finding themselves in the same scoring positions as described above both wingers are being asked to maintain more with that occupying as many central positions and Martin Odegaard has not really taken off with his performances either.

Last season Arsenal scored 70 goals from open play and 18 goals from set pieces a ratio of ~20% coming from set pieces. This season so far Arsenal have scored 13 of their 27 goals from open play, a significant increase up to 52% from set pieces. Whilst this improvement in effectiveness from set pieces is important it must be said that the team needs to improve from open play if they are to mount a serious challenge.

There are some additional central progression issues that have arisen again because of the personnel available this season but I have far less access to the relevant information on this topic to provide an accurate representation in this piece so will leave that to others to cover more effectively.

Striking fundamentals

Speculation around personnel, injuries, central progression and international breaks aside, I would like to focus in on the striker position to see if there is anything that can be done there in the transfer market because for me this is where the potential for immediate improvement from a quality standpoint is most obvious and I will try explain why.

What makes a good striker? Obviously scoring lots of goals is prerequisite. But if you want to dig deeper there are a few things I think are consistent amongst the very best strikers and goalscorers.

Previous conversations with Dan Soff and Disu (esteemed Touchline alum even when we always don’t see eye to eye) highlighted that taking a lot of shots and a good conversion rate of big chances are some of the best indicators of how reliable your striker will be in front of goal (this might seem obvious but when you dive into the data it is not surprising which strikers often fail following big moves). Another good measure is again how a striker compares to all footballers in converting all chances not just the big chances and the way to look at this is through xG models.

For me the best strikers have the following qualities:

• They take lots of shots (above 3.5 shots a game is good)
• Good movement and an ability to get on the end of chances (xG per game of above 0.6)
• Have composure (big chance conversion above 44%)
• Good ball striking/finishing ability underpins all of the above (generally finishing above or around xG)

I will try to demonstrate the above by showcasing that if you are a striker with all of these qualities you tend to be able to score a lot of goals. If we look at some recent seasons from strikers past that we can all universally agree had some of their best performances in front of goal it is clear that these fundamentals seem to be required across the board.

Player + Season	Games	NP Goals	NPxG	NPGoals p90	NPxGp90	Shots p90	Big chance conversion rate	xAp90	Assists
Luis Suarez 15/16	35	37	32.12	1.05	0.92	3.91	No data	0.38	18
Erling Haaland 22/23	35	29	27.43	0.93	0.88	3.95	52.5%	0.19	8
Lewandowski 21/22	34	30	37.92	1.0	1.04	4.87	55.6%*	0.14	3
Harry Kane 22/23	38	25	23.06	0.7	0.49	3.51	65%	0.2	3

If we look at these top strikers at the peak of their powers it’s clear that they all take lots of shots in each game, are elite finishers – putting away as close to half of their big chances – and average close to 0.5 xG per game or higher.

Comparing these with the current Arsenal number 9s it’s clear where the discrepancies are felt the most:

Player + Season	Games	NP Goals	NPxG	NPGoals p90	NPxGp90	Shots p90	Big chance conversion rate	xAp90	Assists
Gabriel Jesus 22/23	26	10	15.41	0.42	0.66	3.29	38.5%	0.18	6
Eddie Nketiah	30	4	9.22	0.35	0.82	3.63	26.7%	0.13	1

Whilst both strikers seem to have relatively good movement and both take a good amount of shots, the ability to convert these shots into football’s most valuable currency is where they fall short. Nketiah and Jesus seem to take a decent amount of shots with Eddie statistically right up there above 3.5 shots per game last season and a whopping 0.82 NPxG per 90 is very much in the top echelon of strikers and Jesus 0.66 NPxG per 90 would still have him above the 90th percentile for strikers. 

What is clear is that both of these players fall down is their ability to convert these chances into goals, both massively underperform their xG. Combined last season Arsenal created nearly 25 non-penalty xG for their number 9 across 33 starts between them last season (this excludes Trossard’s minutes at 9 in the other 5 games). This is very comparable with the number created for Erling Haaland (27.43) or Harry Kane (23.06) last season. Unlike those players Jesus and Nketiah only combined for 14 non-penalty goals, leaving some 10 goals out there somewhere on the pitch. When you get into the big chance conversion the picture gets worse as 26.7% and 38.5% would put you amongst the worst finishers in the league statistically ever. Some added context notoriously profligate strikers in recent history Darwin Nunez and Timo Werner sit at 25.9% and 25.8% respectively.

This for me is one of the biggest issues facing Arsenal at the moment. When teams try and block your central spaces and your wide players are being tag teamed into submission, the guys in the middle of the park need to help out. 

This does mean whoever is playing in midfield might need to do more, for example if you double up on City’s wide players a certain Kevin “the brown one” as the wordsmith that is @RilwanLucas put it “will smash a brick on your head” or in other words will make you pay for the space afforded to him. Likewise Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez will convert those half chances into goals. Midfield in itself is probably a whole other article in itself but the striker position is where I think a big and almost immediate difference can be made, especially when looking at the numbers highlighted above.

Who can be the number 9 saviour?

So the final question that needs to be answered here at least is then who can we turn to, to give this attack the boost it might need. Using the same criteria as above I’ll highlight a few names Arsenal have been linked with in recent weeks and months:

Player + Season	Games	NP Goals	NPxG	NPGoals p90	NPxGp90	Shots p90	Big chance conversion rate	xAp90	Assists
Victor Osimhen 22/23	32	24	24.34	0.83	0.84	4.62	45.6%	0.09	4
Victor Gyokeres 22/23	49	18	13.86	0.4	0.31	3.00	40.6%	0.26	12
Ivan Toney 22/23	33	14	16.36	0.42	0.5	2.86	51.5%	0.15	4
Dusan Valhovic 22-24	38	12	12.26	0.41	0.42	3.30	No data	0.12	3
Evan Ferguson 22-24	32	12	8.26	0.66	0.44	3	46.15	0.07	2

For me the main question seems to be around whether Arsenal need more of a facilitator forward or someone who can finish. For me given the above it is clear this Arsenal team needs a finisher above all. Gabriel Jesus I sincerely believe is a top player, his ability to attract players towards him, beat a man, compete physically despite his diminutive stature and create for others is incredibly important and was a key element to Arsenal’s attack last season. 

As teams sit in lower and lower blocks (Arsenal are playing the deepest blocks in the league this season) these qualities are important. However when the team is able to fashion chances we need to ensure that we’re able to put these chances away. Leaving ~10 goals a season on the pitch is not something that can be accommodated easily especially when the other great finishers at the club are consistently kept on the periphery of the attack.

Away from dribbling ability that Jesus possesses, another way to attract defenders is to be a force of nature physically or to have such elite finishing defenders must be aware of you at all times. We have seen what a player like Erling Haaland was able to do in a team like Manchester City last season and it may be time for Arsenal to obtain their own version.

My personal top choice CF is Victor Osimhen, (not least because he’s from the same tribe as me in Nigeria) because he is a true specimen of a striker. He has an ability to create goals from half chances with powerful and accurate ball striking, physically a powerhouse, good speed to run in behind defenders and a leap and heading ability to cause defences serious damage aerially also. Taking over 4.5 shots per game is pretty astronomical and puts him in the top percentile for all strikers in the top 5 leagues, and his 0.84npxg per 90 is an incredible number and equates to 4 goals every 5 games or so which is as clinical as you can hope for.

Of the names listed above I think any of them would be improvements on Jesus and Nketiah in terms of finishing and just being able to finish on xG would be a significant improvement on the current number 9 options at Arsenal. I will leave people the opportunity to review the data and decide whether they think we need an upgrade at the striker position and which name might be apreference for them but for me it’s clear that there is potentially very big upside to be obtained in that position.

What are your thoughts on the striker situation at Arsenal?